Friday, August 8, 2008

Give Me A Break

The other day I listened to a man on CNBC say that if regulation and oversight got tougher that Wall Street might just pick up and go to another country. HORSE SHIT!!!

I could not believe my ears. Can you believe someone would try and scare the American public into believing that if regulation and oversight of the securities industry was done right that the big investment banking houses in the United States would leave New York City. Yes, and on the same train will be the New York Yankees too. As Bill Clinton would say, “give me a break.”

Just how stupid do these people they put on TV think the American public is? First, the big investment houses have offices around the world already. Their money does not sleep, someone is trading for the big brokerage firms 24 hours a day. They wire the funds around the world as easy as pushing a button on a keyboard. Second, with the trillions of dollars in pension fund assets both public and private, 401-k’s, foundations and endowments, does anyone really think that the sharks are going to feed where there are fewer fish to eat.

Most reasonable people that are familiar with the securities industry just want the enforcement of the laws and rules that are on the books. That alone would go a long way to deter futures abuses of the system. But, with the computer, new and creative tools of finance have been used and some of these, like mortgage-backed bonds, need to be monitored that the quality is there before the rating goes on. This one thing, the proper rating of debt in the United States, would go a long way to prevent future mortgage bond meltdowns. Is that asking too much? The billions of dollars that were invested in mortgage-backed bonds should have the ability to pay that the rating companies say the bonds have. Again, Is that too much to ask? We expect a drug to have the efficacy that the drug company and the tests done for the FDA say the drug will have. And, if there is a problem, we expect them to pull the drug before it kills or injures a few million people. How many millions were affected by the sub prime mortgage meltdown?

Today is August 8, 2008. What I wanted to do today is review where I was and what I was doing starting with 4/04/44 and bring it to the present 8/08/08. Since just a very few people read my blog, I figured why not. How many people would care? 3, 4 maybe on a good day 10, but I doubt I ever had 10 people read my blog in one day. Well, here goes.

4/04/44 I was 18 months old and I lived on the third floor of an apartment building on the corner of Reading Road and Prospect Avenue in Avondale with my mother and father who owned a fish & poultry store around the corner on Prospect Avenue. My only memory is of my father making me count the wood steps as we walked up the back steps to our third floor apartment. At 18 months, I thought counting all those steps was a lot of work. I was born lazy.

5/05/55 I was sitting in 7th grade math class at Woodward High School, when my math teacher, and later my track coach, I ran the half mile or 880 yard run, mentioned the fact that today is 5/5/55. He then said something about the next time something like this would occur would be 6/6/66. I was probably busy drawing cars and not paying a lot of attention. I went to summer school for 7th grade math because I spent my time drawing instead of learning math.

6/06/66 June 6, 1966, I was in the U.S. Army and stationed in Korea. I worked at 8th U.S. Army Headquarters as an assistant to the Staff Historian of 8th U.S. Army, Herman Katz. The job suited me just perfect. I worked for a civilian and I read newspapers and books all day unless I was doing some research for a speech writer or someone else.

7/07/77 I was a Bond Investment Officer at the Central Trust Company Bank trust department. My office was in the bond department at the back of the building on the first floor where they stuck me in a room the size of a closet. It was a fun time working with Tom and Al, who ran the bond department and the bank’s investment portfolio.

8/08/88 I was a broker at Legg Mason and working in the same building I had worked in in 1978, 79, 80 and part of 81. I did not like being a broker. Being a portfolio manager in a trust department was more to my temperament.

9/09/99 I was working in Columbus, Ohio for the Ohio Bureau of Workers’ Compensation as a Senior Investment Officer. That was a nice place to work because of the people. My immediate boss, Bob Cowman the CIO, was one of the nicest and most decent people I ever had the pleasure to work with or know.

8/08/08 Today I am retired. I write a blog, MONEYTHOUGHTS and I draw and paint pictures. I don’t count steps, but I can still run up them. I am still drawing, something I hope to do for many more years. Oh, I also like riding my bike and driving my BMW.

How’s that for my life in 30 seconds? All of my many readers out there on the Internet have a safe and happy weekend, and a happy 8/08/08!

Stay tuned.

Thursday, August 7, 2008

A Better Steel Cage, Part II


There is a group of marks out there that is big enough, and if organized, could be strong enough to level the playing field for the investing public. State pension fund trustees in aggregate control trillions of dollars in investments. If they were organized along with trustees from foundations and endowments across the country, they could influence legislation that would directly affect the investment community. The only thing standing in their way is their own ignorance.

Of all the state pension fund trustees, probably less than ten percent have any background or knowledge or experience at the institutional level of investing. As a result, this group, that speaks for millions of pensioners and state workers, does not even realize the power and force they could represent for change in the regulation and oversight of the investment community and how business is done on Wall Street.

Perhaps when a few big states, starting with California, realize that their pension funds are being put at unnecessary risk because the greedy want the opportunity to have a feeding frenzy every few years or so, then perhaps their political/economic power will be directed towards better regulation and oversight. When you assemble 50 state pension funds to include state workers, teachers, school employees, police and fire workers, plus all the city pension funds, you now are talking about the financial well being of millions of people. Who have I left out?

The poster child of this last crisis, for me at least, is the sub prime mortgage mess. If ever there was a crisis that could have had the plug pulled on it at the beginning, it is the sub prime mortgage bonds that were packaged (securitized), rated by the rating companies, underwritten by the investment bankers and sold by the institutional brokers to pension funds and other institutional portfolios. At every step of the process that turned these mortgages into the disastrous sub prime mortgage bonds that they became, a red flag should have gone up. Why didn’t it? The answer is simple, greed. Everyone associated with the manufacturer of the sub prime mortgage bonds was too greedy to pull the plug or raise the red flag. Concern for the investing public is not their problem, let the buyer beware.

Time for a personal story. Back in the late 1980’s when I was working as a broker between portfolio manager jobs, I had the opportunity to witness an underwriting of a fixed income product that was listed on the New York Stock Exchange and went belly up within six months after its initial sale at $10 a unit. The name of the product is not important, but how the brokerage firm that I was with behaved when I asked a question about the product is. We were assembled for a luncheon meeting in the conference room and sandwiches were brought in. The guy from the home office involved with the underwriting came out to make the presentation while we were wolfing down our sandwiches. In that the product was essentially a fixed income product, and in that I had cut my teeth on the fixed income markets, I thought I should understand this product pretty well. After the presentation, I raised my hand and asked a question. My question was not answered, but I was told that this product was so good I could sell it to my grandmother. Fortunately for me both my grandmothers were already dead as the loss they would have suffered in less than six months would have probably killed them. This is the kind of greedy shit that went on and does go on on Wall Street.

Unfortunately, the politicians do not have the background or knowledge or political motivation to put a stop to this shit. But, if the state pension trustees and foundation and endowment trustees would organize, they could represent a force that could put in place the kind of regulation and oversight that is needed to protect the pension assets, that run into the trillions of dollars, from unnecessary risk resulting from pure greed.

I am talking about the elimination of fraud, plain and simple. One of these days the right people may wake up and realize that they have a responsibility to millions of working people, and then take the necessary action to deliver the kind of regulation and oversight the working people of America deserve.

Stay tuned.

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Building A Better Steel Cage

Whenever there is a financial crisis, there soon follows an attempt by the media and the general public to asses blame. But the thing we must realize is that assessing blame does not necessarily mean that a future crisis will be averted. What is needed and what we get quite often are two different things.

The field of finance and financial instruments such as stocks and bonds fill an important need in our dynamic economy, but without suitable regulation and the proper oversight, the service the field provides becomes a nightmare. I know that analogies have their limitations, but let me make a few basic ones here at the beginning. Wall Street, the business of underwriting and selling investment securities is an urban jungle. Survival and making lots of money is everything.

The field attracts a wide assortment of bright and talented people from many different backgrounds, but the one thing that those that make it, or those that do well, is the strong desire to make lots of money. Money is the yardstick by which everything is measured. If you think I am wrong, that is all right with me, but then do not go looking through the 400 wealthiest people in America when that Forbes issue hits the newsstand. Money and the speed of making money is what moves Wall Street. This is the way it is, just accept it. On the other hand, government regulation is necessary to keep the feeding frenzy from getting out of hand. When regulation does not do its job, the feeding frenzy gets out of hand and we have a crisis.

Those involved in the business of providing the service of raising capital and then placing investment securities with investors, needs to be regulated and monitored in today’s economy more than ever before. The amounts of money, the speed with which the money changes hands and the giant pension funds that are invested in these securities makes better regulation more than just essential. Without proper oversight there is nothing standing between the predators and the prey. Many people, far more experienced and educated than me, could construct a financial system that would keep an abuse from becoming a crisis. But, what is at stake is more than just politics and egos, it is money, lots of money. Even the Great White Shark will rattle your protective cage when it is being kept from its prey, and Wall Street is no different.

It is my opinion that little will be done to correct the deficiencies in the financial system of investment securities and markets. There is just too much money at stake, and lifestyles and lives are on the line. Those with money will use it to bring about their desired results. There is no such thing as an endangered species on Wall Street. Fresh marks are born everyday.

I worked my whole career in Ohio in three cities, Cincinnati, Dayton and Columbus, and yet I have enough first hand stories of greed to fill a book. Those that shoot fish in a barrel do not want to work any harder than they have to. Even with regulations where they are, the competition is fierce. The marks do not have the political muscle to change the rules, and as a result, they will remain vulnerable now and in the future.

Some day, the marks may become educated enough to push back with enough force to cause positive changes in regulation and oversight to be made, but I do not look for that to happen anytime soon.

Stay tuned.

Tuesday, August 5, 2008

Private Equity Firms Smell Blood

Private equity is back in the news. It seems that several private equity firms see the banks as an opportunity to make some fast money, but they want the Securities & Exchange Commission and the Federal Reserve Bank to suspend the regulations as they apply to bank ownership. What does that mean?

When a company buys into a bank that is publicly traded as all of the large banks in the United States are, there are certain rules that must be followed as they relate to the percent of ownership that an outside investor can maintain. These rules are designed to prevent conflict of interest and to insure some semblance of competition. The break points are 10% and 25%. Let me try and explain. If a company, such as a private equity firm, invests in more than 25% of the bank’s common stock, the private equity firm is then considered a bank holding company and is then governed by the rules and regulations of a bank. If a private equity firm would own between 10% and 25% of a bank, they can not control the bank’s management. And, to put a director on the board of the bank, the investment firm (private equity firm) must own less than 10% of the common stock. These rules exist to promote fairness and protect consumers and businesses that deal with banks.

But now the private equity firms smell blood in the water, and looking to maximize their profits would like the rules and regulations put aside for a while, while they fed on the bleeding (cash) banks. It is just that simple. We do not have to use big words to explain a simple point. The point being that banks are hurting from the loan losses and other investments they may have gotten themselves into. The investing public and several funds have taken a bath as a result of the decline in market valuation of many many of the banks’ common stocks. The banks need an infusion of fresh cash and the private equity firms have the cash to invest. The question is whether the government will hold the line on regulation or whether they will cave in. In that you and I are the ultimate guarantors, as we provide the government with the cash to back up the banks, should the government allow a suspension of the rules and regulations so the feeding frenzy can begin?

Private equity firms are not nonprofit organizations. They are the great white sharks of Wall Street. They do not bother with the little fish as it is not worth their effort in time or money. But, the large commercial banks, especially the ones that need fresh cash, are a meal. My opinion and two bucks will maybe buy you a cup of coffee, depending on where you live, is this. My view of the situation and knowing what private equity firms are like, I think the government better stick with the rules and regulations as they are and not get creative at this point in time. Private equity firms have one objective and that is to make as much profit in as short an amount of time as possible. They are measured against a time weighted return on capital. That is the last kind of measure we need for our commercial banks to labor under at this point in time. Our commercial banks, at this point in time, need a protective environment, not to be thrown to the sharks.

Stay tuned.

Monday, August 4, 2008

The Catholic Card?

In 1960, John F. Kennedy went to Texas to give a speech that dealt with the fact that he was a Catholic American running for president of these United States. The last Catholic to make a run for the presidency at that time was Al Smith, in 1928. Herbert Hoover defeated Al Smith in that election that my father witnessed. He told me how it was filled with anti-Catholic propaganda and that the campaign got very ugly. So, 48 years ago JFK made a trip to Texas to try and answer, and at the same time confront people’s unspoken fear of having a Catholic president in the White House. JFK gave his speech and went on to win a very close presidential election in November, 1960. The myth that we could not have a Catholic American as president was put to rest. No one, that I can remember, said that John F. Kennedy was playing the “Catholic card” for going to Texas and giving a speech dealing with the issue of a Catholic president. In 1960, this issue was as yet to be put to rest.

Now 48 years later, an African American is running for president. And, like JFK in 1960, Barak Obama is not in the mold of previous American presidents. That he speaks about this fact openly and is then criticized by the Republican party is no accident. And, that it is said that he is playing the “race card”, is part of the Republican strategy to divert the electorate’s attention from the political/economic issues that this election should be about. Senator Obama is not playing the “race card”, in my opinion, any more than JFK was playing the “Catholic card” in 1960. Any attempt by Obama to make the electorate more comfortable with the idea of the United States having a black man as president is going to meet with opposition from the Republican party. Whether this opposition is considered racist, I will not venture to comment because I can not read what is in their minds. The Republicans will do everything in their powers to make John McCain the next president. The Republican party’s bottom line is to win, and they will do whatever it takes to win. As they say in sports, a win is a win, regardless of how ugly the win is. You can bet that the Republican party will pursue that game plan through the election.

The problem that I have with this strategy is that it is built on fear. The party of business, the party that understands marketing and thus understands what motivates people to buy products and services every day of the year, understands the role fear plays in motivating people to act. The TV journalists, being the talking heads that they are, can not think through this simple yet effective strategy and explain it to the American people. I guess I expect too much from TV journalists. In 1928, the Republican party appealed to the fear of the majority of non-Catholic Americans that if a Catholic was elected president then the Pope in Roman would ultimately be running the country. This kind of fear was enough to defeat Al Smith the Democratic candidate and the former Governor of the State of New York.

Today, it is a new fear. There is no question any more as to whether a black man can play quarterback or win a Super Bowl. Those myths have been put to rest. Today, America is faced with a new challenge, the challenge to put another myth and fear to rest. Can America have a black man as president? My answer is “why not?” The history of this country is a history of putting myths and fears to rest. That is how we built a country that almost everyone in the world wants to live in. But, the job or the process is never over. Our history is predicated on opening new frontiers. Electing a black man as president is just another frontier for us as Americans to cross.

This presidential election has a number of issues for the electorate to decide on. The challenge for the Democratic party is to get the electorate to vote on the issues and their economic self interest. If the Democrats can get the electorate to vote their pocket books, they will win. If the Republicans can get the electorate to vote their fear of a black man as our president, they will win. The last president, George W. Bush, has not set the bar very high for our next president. Coming from Texas and a former governor, President Bush hit the ground running and fell flat on his face. Ask yourself, are you better off now than you were 7 years ago? Few people can answer that in the affirmative. This nation faces some very serious economic challenges and it is going to take one outstanding quarterback to get the job done. I think our best shot in 2008 is a black man named Barak Obama.

Stay tuned.

Saturday, August 2, 2008

Saturday Is For Art




Three goldfish in acrylic paint.